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Mortgage 101 – updates on federal election and fall market | October 2021 Part 1

In this episode of Mortgage 101 with Clinton Wilkins and Todd Veinotte, as heard on News 95.7, the guys talk about the results of the federal election and the campaign promises around housing. They also talk about the fall real estate market, particularly around the low listing numbers so far this season.

Mortgage 101 with Clinton Wilkins & Todd Veinotte: Updates on federal election and fall market | October 2021 Part 1

Don’t feel like watching the video? Check out the transcript below.

Transcript:

Thoughts on the Federal Election

Clinton Wilkins: [00:00:00:04] I was actually at the 75th anniversary at the Shore Club.

Todd Veinotte: [00:00:04:28] You were?

Clinton Wilkins: [00:00:05:19] Yeah, I was.

Todd Veinotte: [00:00:06:13] Was it a sentimental kind of feeling?

Clinton Wilkins: [00:00:09:00] It was sentimental and it was almost like a little bit that COVID didn’t exist. Obviously, you know, we were wearing our masks and sitting in our seats, but you know, it was a good time. Good time.

Probably everybody needed a little bit of a good time this summer. But now, you know, we’re going to fall and there’s no better time to talk about homeownership and mortgage lending than going into the fall. You know, maybe you want to fall into homeownership.

Todd Veinotte: [00:00:32:20] Wow.

Clinton Wilkins: [00:00:33:21] Is that corny?

Todd Veinotte: [00:00:34:15] It’s really corny. What are your thoughts, if any, on the federal election?

Clinton Wilkins: [00:00:39:00] Not super surprised. Yeah. You know, we had a bit of a vested interest in a couple of candidates. You know, spouses may or may not work here in the office as well as, you know, we have friends that are related to, you know, existing MPs that were obviously running. So we’re keeping a close eye on a few of the candidates. And when it was called that it was going to be a liberal minority, I basically turned off the TV and I had been staying up and I didn’t watch the rest of the country, the results come in.

But I was certainly watching very intently on what was going on here in Halifax. Yeah, and obviously in a couple of other ridings that we were really like watching and very interested in. And, you know, not super, super surprised, but I think obviously the Canadians have spoken and, you know, they’ve given the liberals another minority government. So that’s really giving them a mandate, you know, for the next period of time, whether that’s going to be four years, I don’t know. They’re certainly a lot of hot topics, and one of them certainly is housing, Todd.

Housing was at the forefront of this election

Todd Veinotte: [00:01:47:21] Yeah, well, it’s going to say Trudeau talked a lot about housing, right?

Clinton Wilkins: [00:01:50:00] A lot about housing. And, you know, obviously, we’re here to talk about housing. And I think, you know, I’ll give us a little bit of kudos. We’ve been talking about housing for years, live on the air and during our podcast format that we’re on now. And you know what, I think we’ve talked about a lot of core issues.

You know, we’ve talked a lot about mortgage lending, but we’ve talked a lot about housing as well and you know, the topics of the day. So we’re going to continue those conversations, I think is important to have, you know, we need to break down some of these barriers and I’m happy to be on the air with you.

Todd Veinotte: [00:02:25:05] But Trudeau, I mean, he talked a big game about getting people into homes. And now I can’t even remember what some of the potential incentivization, incentivized programs would have been. Do you remember what some of them even were?

Campaign promises for first-time home buyers

Clinton Wilkins: [00:02:38:11] Like, there was a tax-free account for first-time home buyers and stuff like that they talked about. And you know, a lot of it was around for some homebuyers. Exactly. And you know, I think those are good conversations to have, I think. I think first-time home buyers were left a little bit out in the lurch, a little bit, probably over the last few years. It’s been a challenging time.

And it’s not just in Halifax for first-time home buyers, first-time home buyers from across the country, I think have been having a hard time and I’m glad that some of these campaign promises, I guess we’ll call them, were brought to the forefront.

And now we’ll see, obviously, in the coming weeks and years what gets sworn into law because, you know, as you know, with a minority government, they really have to have the support of other MPs outside of the party to really bring these into law.

So I think we’ll be watching obviously intently. I’ve personally done some lobbying, I guess, for our professional association, Mortgage Professionals Canada, I’ve spoken with MPs here in our region and senators and talked, you know, really talked about some of these core issues around housing and mortgage finance.

Halifax’s fall market update

Todd Veinotte: [00:03:48:17] All right. So now we’re going to talk about something that everybody’s curious about and that to the market and the availability that’s out there and what the anticipation is for the fall market. Typically, what does the fall market? Is it kids go back to school after Labour Day until November? Is there a calendar?

Clinton Wilkins: [00:04:06:02] I think it really kind of continues into like mid-December, to be honest, Todd. Kind of after mid-December, things kind of die off. You know, nobody really wants to talk about mortgage lending or real estate, you know, in the holidays, I don’t really want to talk about it either.

Todd Veinotte: [00:04:19:03] You will always want to talk about real estate. Come on now.

Clinton Wilkins: [00:04:21:22] I mean, I do want to talk about it, but it also is nice having a break and I am looking forward to having a break this year. But the fall market is one of the busiest markets of the year. And sometimes people just talk about the spring market. You know, people are getting pre-approved lots of activity and then that activity kind of carries through the rest of the year. But the fall market is a very, very important market.

Todd, and I’ll tell you why it’s that market that basically cleans things up. If you are a seller that is trying to sell their property and you want to sell it, chances are you become more motivated in the fall because you want to sell that property before winter. Yes, the winter market typically isn’t as busy because people don’t want to move.

They don’t want to contest, you know, deal with snow and the rain and sleet and all these things and fall can be very busy to kind of clean up that inventory that hasn’t sold in the summer or maybe from the spring. I think this fall market will be busy as well, Todd, but my one concern is really, and I’ll bring it back is around listings.

Listings are down

You know, last month I said, you know what, we’re seeing some listings come back. You know, I’m feeling positive. We’re seeing more and more listings. But you know, we’re almost at that critical point where if we don’t start seeing some more listings, I don’t think it’ll be as busy as it has been. It also is concerning to me. Because the less supply there is that a man keeps on building.

And, you know, I will say that probably the market is slightly overheated right now. Do I ever think the prices are going down? Not unless we have a lot of supply come in. So I don’t think prices are going to go down. But I think the situation in terms of how heated the market is, at least here in Nova Scotia, will be further exacerbated by the lack of supply.

Todd Veinotte: [00:06:11:18] So the market, do you think it’s peaked?

Clinton Wilkins: [00:06:15:08] In terms of price or transactions?

Todd Veinotte: [00:06:17:23] Yeah, well, I guess I guess both.

Clinton Wilkins: [00:06:21:08] Again, it’s a supply and demand. The situation, it all depends on what happens with the supply in terms of transactions, Todd, the fall market isn’t as busy as we would normally see in the spring, so I don’t know if we’re going to see an uptick in the transactions.

Looking forward, even to like our pipeline, November looks soft compared to last year. And I think that is a symptom of some uncertainty in the market, as well as the lack of supply in terms of new lists.

Todd Veinotte: [00:06:55:26] Is there uncertainty in the market?

Clinton Wilkins: [00:06:57:17] You know, I think any time that you know, COVID kicks up and I think, you know, the delay in phase five happening in Nova Scotia, we were having like a really kind of slow build, you know, in our vaccination percentages, I think,

“It’s almost eerie quiet right now.”

Todd Veinotte: [00:07:15:01] But we went through COVID and had one of the hottest markets of all time.

Clinton Wilkins: [00:07:19:18] Yeah, we did.

Todd Veinotte: [00:07:20:17] During lockdowns!

Clinton Wilkins: [00:07:21:14] And you know, I hope we never are back there again.

Todd Veinotte: [00:07:24:28] Yeah, me too. But that contradicts what you’re saying.

Clinton Wilkins: [00:07:27:16] It contradicts what I’m saying in the sense that normally things go hog wild when the kids go back into school. We saw a little bit of that, but it’s almost eerie quiet right now.

Todd Veinotte: [00:07:40:08] Wow. For everybody?

Clinton Wilkins: [00:07:41:10] I don’t know for everyone, but I’m even when I look even at the street, sometimes in downtown, I think we’re we were having a lot of people come back into the office during the summer. And I think we thought there was going to be like a mass back to normal in September, going into phase five, and when that was delayed, I think it kind of dampened maybe a little bit of the activity.

Will it come back? I think so. I think it’s going to be very steady. I’m feeling positive. I think it’s going to be steady between now and December. But is it going to be as busy as it was last year? I don’t think we’re going to see the amount of transactions, Todd, because we don’t have the supply. So, you know, I think it’s a wait and see, I’m not ringing the alarm by any chance or by any means, but I think it’s something that we’re cautiously optimistic.

Accepted offers are more rare these days

But I think everyone’s prepared that even when we do a pre-approval and even when we get an accepted offer to it, honestly, we almost celebrate with the client because we’re like, “Whoa, you got an accepted offer.” So it’s exciting, I think, for everyone involved in the process. And I think it’s just such a milestone to be able to get an accepted offer on a property these days.

Todd Veinotte: [00:08:53:12] Wow, and things could change, though. You could get a barrage of listings?

Clinton Wilkins: [00:08:58:16] Yeah, we might. And you know, I think one of the issues that obviously is being talked about on the federal level, as well as the provincial level, is working with the municipalities to cut the red tape. And how can they help sort out some of these supply issues so we can certainly talk about that.

Todd Veinotte: [00:09:19:05] All right. What do you want to talk about besides that mortgage myths? Do you want to get into mortgage myths?

Clinton Wilkins: [00:09:22:20] We definitely want to talk about the myths because it is October, and mortgage lending can be very daunting and scary, so hopefully, we can break down some of those myths.

Todd Veinotte: [00:09:31:28] All right, Mortgage 101: Your Guide to Homeownership with Clinton Wilkins and myself Todd Veinotte, we’ll be right back here on News 95.7.

If you have any questions, get in touch with us at Clinton Wilkins Mortgage Team! You can call us at (902) 482-2770 or contact us here.

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