Mortgage 101 – Housing Starts in Nova Scotia

Are we building enough new homes in Nova Scotia? Clinton and Todd discuss housing starts, and the Halifax market, focusing on trends in new builds, affordability concerns, and demographic shifts. The two touch on a lack of inventory causing demand crunches and advocate for the need for more housing supply to meet growing demand.

Todd Veinotte

You’re listening to Mortgage 101, your guide to homeownership with Clinton Wilkins and myself, Todd Veinotte.

Clinton Wilkins
On today’s episode, housing starts in HRM. And across the country, what’s going on?

Todd Veinotte
Why new builds of any type will help to ease the demand crunch here in Halifax?

Clinton Wilkins
Why the average age of first-time homebuyers is changing across Canada?

Todd Veinotte
And building trends across the province! I wanted to talk to you about housing starts. This is always a huge part obviously inventory, the amount of inventory has a big role in pricing. An Ontario story this week, quite startling, that housing starts are really, really flat. What can you tell us about housing starts here in HRM?

Clinton Wilkins
I think housing starts in HRM are on the upswing. Not like Ontario. I did hear a stat the other day that we have like one of the highest concentrations of cranes in North America. Definitely, per capita, we have the most amount of cranes in the air. So we’re building a lot of buildings. I don’t know if we’ve got on yet to building as many single-family detached, semi-detached rows yet, but I think we’re going to see more in 2025, into 2026, especially with the federal government incentivizing in some ways, and they’re gonna work on more programs, to get builders to start building more.

Todd Veinotte
Affordability, is something that a lot of people are concerned about in this day and age, it’s it’s tough. It’s something that we talk about a lot on the talk show, of course. What can you tell us? What can you tell people about affordability? What are your thoughts on affordability?

Clinton Wilkins
I think the number one thing that people are concerned about with affordability is this new construction is not affordable. But what I think we need to remember is this new construction stuff, some of it is under affordable programs; majority is not but some are. When we build new inventory, it’s going to have a vertical cyclone, basically, in sucking all of these people that might be in lower cost housing into the newer stuff. So then it will open up opportunities, I think, at that lower price point. So the more housing that we have come on, at any price point, I think is good. It creates more inventory, which means maybe on the lower cost, it will open up some availability. And as we know, with anything just like real estate, it’s supply and demand. The more supply we have, it will then ease the amount of demand. The problem is in Halifax, we just have such a high demand for housing in general, to purchase to rent, low income, everything, the demand is just so so high, some more inventory will certainly help.

Todd Veinotte
There’s talk about, and some people feel as though, they use the term “bubble,” that’s a term that we hear a lot. What do you tell people who suggest that we’re in a housing bubble here in Halifax? Well,

Clinton Wilkins
I don’t think that bubble is gonna burst for a long, long time, ever. If our population continues to grow, we’re just not creating enough housing to meet those demands. And I think to right, the situation, we’re gonna need, like 20 years. We need a long time, in terms of construction, infrastructure, to really meet that demand. Halifax, we have over 500,000 people living here. I think the population has grown by like 20 or 25% in the last five years. If we continue to see growth with those numbers, I think the problem is going to continue. Yeah. And I’m, you know, I’m all about people moving here. You know, I think we were the best kept secret. I think a lot of people from like Ontario, and our west side was like, so backwards here and like, Nova Scotia, but you know, we’re so progressive, and it really is a good place to live and work and do business. I think personally, I’ve decided this is where I want to do business. And, you know, I think our listeners would hopefully agree with me!

Todd Veinotte
Okay, of the business that you do, share some of the demographics that you’re looking at. Are we talking about young people, old people, middle aged people, what type of demographics are doing business with you right now?

Clinton Wilkins
I would say it’s like every creed, religion, age, everything. It’s a wide smattering of clients. I used to always say, we have first time homebuyers, we have retirees, and we have everybody in the middle. I would say that would continue to be true. Right now the ones that are buying, the first time homebuyers. I think the average age is going up, primarily due to the need to have more income, and they need to have more money to be able to get into that first home. I think the ones that bought a home, five years ago, those ones were probably younger than the ones that are buying a home today, in my opinion. But we’re certainly seeing more like retirees, older people, mortgaging their homes. It’s the biggest asset that they have, in many, many cases.

Todd Veinotte
How much churn is out there.

Clinton Wilkins
And by churn, what do you mean?

Todd Veinotte
I mean, how much churn/turnover people buying homes, selling homes.

Clinton Wilkins
Not as much as last year. But it’s certainly happening. It’s certainly happening a lot. You know, we’ve said in our previous show that the average house price in Halifax certainly has increased. I saw a stat just the other day. It’s about $580,000 is the average purchase price and Halifax. I remember just like maybe a year ago or two years ago, maybe three, it was like five and a quarter. So we’re seeing the prices still increase, but not at the level that we were seeing them increase in like 2020-2021. We’re not seeing it like like those levels, it’s going to level off.

Todd Veinotte
There’s talk that the federal government, Justin Trudeau, has had conversations with some lobby groups that suggest that your principal residence could potentially be taxed. And I’ve spoken with people about this on my talk show, and people feel as though that’s a concern, because let’s face it, as you’ve said, many, many times the biggest purchase of your life, it’s a big part of people’s retirement package all of it. So what what are your thoughts on this?

Clinton Wilkins
I really don’t see that becoming a reality, personally. And I’ll tell you why. It’s a lot different. In the US, for example, they’re also able to claim their mortgage interest against their income tax, because they’re really worried about getting more Americans to become homeowners. We already have a very high penetration of home ownership in Canada. The federal government, and we would be remiss not to mention it, has changed the capital gains regulations here. So anything that’s not your principal residence now goes through a different capital gains scheme than it did even just a couple of months ago. So yes, they are playing with it. But I think they’re going to still continue to protect that primary residence. You know, in some ways, it’s sacred. And we know Canadians love homeownership, and we have a very high ownership levels of homes in the developed world, really, which we’re very lucky.

Todd Veinotte
Is there anything out there on the horizon that you’re keeping your eye on similar to that?

Clinton Wilkins
Well, we didn’t mention this at the top of the show. But you know, we’re now past the first of August. And borrowers that are first time homebuyers that are buying a new construction property can now get a 30 year amortization. That’s big news. And we thought that you know what 30 year amortizationswe’re never ever coming back. But baby, they’re back! So if you’re a first time homebuyer and you’re buying a new construction property, I think thinking about a 30 year amortization could be a benefit. It will help with qualification. And obviously, it will help with the monthly payments. So I think there’s certainly some value there. And if you’re younger, why not? Yeah, you know what, in many cases, these homes are an investment. And you know, 30 years, depending on what your age is, I think it has a lot of value. But you know what, we are seeing people going into retirement taking a 30 year amortization. So everybody’s situation is different. And I think that’s what makes this so interesting.

Todd Veinotte
Yeah, absolutely. And again, so when it comes to housing starts, the message in HRM from you is that we’re doing okay!

Clinton Wilkins
You know, what, I think we’re doing okay, certainly in the multifamily we need more starts, period. We definitely need more, we need more than what is happening right now. But I think that we’re trending in the right direction here in Halifax. And I think, the supply in other areas may be starting to write itself based on demand, but we certainly need more.

Todd Veinotte
Rural areas, housing starts Nova Scotia?

Clinton Wilkins
Maybe not as hot. Not as hot as Halifax but I think there certainly are some starts happening. The nice thing is in rural Nova Scotia, typically the real estate markets are not as crazy as Halifax. But there’s a lot of land. Here we just don’t have as much building lots available. There’s always land in more rural areas. That can have its complications as well. And I’m sure if we had Danielle here as well, she would be like okay. Now we need to talk about well, and septic.

Todd Veinotte
We will next time we have her on. Listen, a lot to absorb here, how do people get a hold of you?

Clinton Wilkins
I think check us out online at Teamclinton.ca/radio. All kinds of great content there. We have hundreds and hundreds of blog posts. We have our rates. We have a secure online application portal.

Todd Veinotte
Thanks so much!